Análisis del comportamiento de precios de hortalizas frescas como insumo para la toma de decisiones productivas

In Uruguay, the decisions in the productive level are based on the empirical knowledge of the farmers. Having historical database of an extended period of time enable analysis and, according to the results, recommend different strategies.

There are many tools to analyse data, from simple mathematical models that relate two variables to those complex that include many components. The aim of this report is to provide a simple study using basic methodologies that involves time series of monthly prices per kilo of tomato, strawberry and squash, and their correspondent monthly supply. Initially, it is going to be made the conversion from raw to real prices using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). After that there will be detected the outliers that might interfere and make the decomposition of the prices series in the four basic elements: trend, cycle, seasonality and variability. Additionally, there will be included a statistic analysis to study the behaviour of the prices and the supply using the correlation coefficient and the estimation of F and t statistics.

It is highly important to remark that a quantitative analysis is way more valuable if it is complemented with qualitative information. Of those factors that affect the supply and the demand of a good and determine the final price there will be mentioned the most important ones, like the temperature as the main climatic factor and the characterisation and the preferences of the Uruguayan consumer, determinant actor in the chain, who represents the demand.