Descripción y análisis económico-financiero de la producción ovina en la Estación Experimental Facultad de Agronomía Salto

The sheep sector has historically been characterized by its economic and social importance in the country’s development. However, its presence across the territory has declined over the last 30 years due to several factors, mainly economic in nature, associated with changes in markets, the emergence of substitute fibers, and the evolution of consumer preferences. These processes have shaped the development of the sector, promoting increasing productive specialization, particularly towards fine wool production. In this context, economic analysis is essential for understanding the sector’s performance under variable productive and market conditions.

This study focused on analyzing the gross margin of the sheep production subsystem at the Experimental Station of the Faculty of Agronomy in Salto (EEFAS), Universidad de la República (UdelaR). The objectives were to determine whether the economic results were explained by internal system factors or by market conditions, as well as to position the obtained results within the range of possible outcomes over six agricultural years.

The methodology consisted of analyzing the productive structure of the system and its economic performance based on accounting records. In addition, the behavior of product and input markets was evaluated. Complementarily, Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for each production year using XLRISK (Vose Software, 2021) software in order to estimate the probabilistic distribution of gross margin and identify the main factors influencing the economic outcome.

The results revealed marked variability among years, with both positive and negative outcomes depending on productive conditions and price contexts. Sensitivity analysis for the average production year indicated that wool price and labor costs were the principal factors affecting the system’s gross margin. To a lesser extent, variables associated with meat marketing (price per kilograms and animal weight) showed a greater impact than supplement price. Overall, the system presented an average gross margin of USD 11/ha, accompanied by high variability. This economic result was found within the 90% probability range of occurrence.

In conclusion, despite the productive results achieved by the system, the final economic performance is strongly influenced by market factors. In a context of price fluctuations, economic results exhibited similar behavior. In this regard, the adoption of process technologies and the strategic use of inputs may enhance results under favorable market scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of appropriate management of productive resources and continuous monitoring of market conditions in order to improve the economic stability of the system. Specialization in fine wool production, together with diversification into new markets such as sheep genetics, constitutes a relevant aspect for improving the profitability of the evaluated system.